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31 Jul 2025
Q225 results and 15 questions for management

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Q225 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
31 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
19 -
Summary of Q225 results
Most elements of the ABInBev''s Q225 results were broadly in-line with company consensus expectation: Q2 LFL sales grew +3.0% (cons. +3.2%); Q2 LFL EBITDA +6.5% (co. cons. +5.7%) and Q2 USD EBITDA of USD5.3bn was a modest miss (-0.8% below). However, the notable exception was organic volumes which declined -1.9% and were a -160bp miss. By region, the primary course of the volume miss was South America (Q2 vols -4.9% vs. cons. -0.2%) where Brazil Beer volumes declined -9.0%. Q2 EPS at USD0.98 was a +2.8% beat and grew +8.0% YOY (+17.4% at constant FX).
News
We highlight that Brazil Beer volumes declined by -9.0% in Q225, driven by tough comps, price relativities (vs. competition) leading to underperformance in a soft industry which was also impacted by adverse weather.
Earnings
We revise our FY25e / FY26e / FY27e EPS estimate by c.+3% / c.-1% / c.-2%.
Investment thesis
We expect material share buybacks to drive a high-teens mid-term TSR at ABInBev.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves to EUR71 from EUR64 driven by 6-month roll-forward of our target earnings base. ADR to USD81 from USD76.
15 questions for management
What is your view the hemp based intoxicating beverages which appear to be growing in popularity in the US? Is it a product you would ever consider expanding into as part of your beyond beer strategy?