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  • 19 Nov 2021

Q3 21 results and outlook: Inflation is here to stay


Ebro Foods SA (EBRO:MCE), 0 | Viscofan, S.A. (VIS:MCE), 0 | Prosegur Compania de Seguridad SA (PSG:MCE), 0 | Melia Hotels International, S.A. (MEL:MCE), 0 | Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (CAF:MCE), 0 | Vidrala SA (VID:MCE), 0 | Tecnicas Reunidas SA (TRE:MCE), 0 | LABORATORIO REIG JOFRE, S.A. (RJF:MCE), 0 | Fluidra, S.A. (FDR:MCE), 0 | Almirall SA (ALM:MCE), 0 | Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A. (ROVI:MCE), 0 | CIE Automotive, S.A. (CIE:MCE), 0 | Logista Integral, S.A. (LOG:MCE), 0 | Gestamp Automocion S.A. (GEST:MCE), 0 | Prosegur Cash SA (CASH:MCE), 0 | Almirall SA (0O9B:LON), 0 | Logista Integral, S.A. (0QWA:LON), 0 | CIE Automotive, S.A. (0DZC:LON), 0 | Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (0RKF:LON), 0 | Ebro Foods SA (0NYH:LON), 0 | Covivio SA (0J6V:LON), 0 | LABORATORIO REIG JOFRE, S.A. (0RB1:LON), 0 | Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A. (0ILL:LON), 0 | Prosegur Compania de Seguridad SA (0Q8P:LON), 0 | Tecnicas Reunidas SA (0MKT:LON), 0 | Videndum PLC (VID:LON), 35.4 | Viscofan, S.A. (0MKW:LON), 0 | Mitsubishi Electric Corp. (6503:TKS), 0 | APPLUS SERVICES S.A. (APPSN:MEX), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Ruiz Francisco FR | De Cueto Moreno Gonzalo GD

    • 34 pages


 

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Q3 21 results and outlook: Inflation is here to stay


Ebro Foods SA (EBRO:MCE), 0 | Viscofan, S.A. (VIS:MCE), 0 | Prosegur Compania de Seguridad SA (PSG:MCE), 0 | Melia Hotels International, S.A. (MEL:MCE), 0 | Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (CAF:MCE), 0 | Vidrala SA (VID:MCE), 0 | Tecnicas Reunidas SA (TRE:MCE), 0 | LABORATORIO REIG JOFRE, S.A. (RJF:MCE), 0 | Fluidra, S.A. (FDR:MCE), 0 | Almirall SA (ALM:MCE), 0 | Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A. (ROVI:MCE), 0 | CIE Automotive, S.A. (CIE:MCE), 0 | Logista Integral, S.A. (LOG:MCE), 0 | Gestamp Automocion S.A. (GEST:MCE), 0 | Prosegur Cash SA (CASH:MCE), 0 | Almirall SA (0O9B:LON), 0 | Logista Integral, S.A. (0QWA:LON), 0 | CIE Automotive, S.A. (0DZC:LON), 0 | Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (0RKF:LON), 0 | Ebro Foods SA (0NYH:LON), 0 | Covivio SA (0J6V:LON), 0 | LABORATORIO REIG JOFRE, S.A. (0RB1:LON), 0 | Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A. (0ILL:LON), 0 | Prosegur Compania de Seguridad SA (0Q8P:LON), 0 | Tecnicas Reunidas SA (0MKT:LON), 0 | Videndum PLC (VID:LON), 35.4 | Viscofan, S.A. (0MKW:LON), 0 | Mitsubishi Electric Corp. (6503:TKS), 0 | APPLUS SERVICES S.A. (APPSN:MEX), 0

  • Published: 19 Nov 2021
  • Author: Ruiz Francisco FR | De Cueto Moreno Gonzalo GD
  • Pages: 34
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Numbers not bad but close to peak margin Q3 results were better than expected, with sales continuing the good growth path seen in Q2, and margins remaining at peak as the inflation in raw materials and energy has not yet had a strong impact on Spanish names. We highlight the good numbers of Fluidra, Rovi and Viscofan while Tecnicas, Almirall and CAF disappointed. We think that the short term focus of the market will be on the ability of the companies to deal with cost inflation. We take a preliminary look at our coverage and conclude Applus, Fluidra and Prosegur Cash have more pricing power than Ebro. We remain more cautious than consensus Despite our recent upgrades of Viscofan and ROVI to Outperform, we are more negative than consensus overall with 56% positive ratings (vs 64% for consensus). We are also more cautious in terms of estimates, being c.2% below consensus EBITDA for 2022 on average. Spanish Mid Caps continue to underperform European peers Despite the good trends for Spanish SMC names at the beginning of the year, and despite the +12% YTD performance, this is still 7% below the European MSCI. Our top picks also suffered in quarter despite good results for almost all the names. YTD the top picks have risen +15%. Our model portfolio: Applus, CAF, Gestamp, Logista and Viscofan (new) We have added Viscofan, after our recent upgrade, to our model''s other 4 names (which remain on the list). Applus has seen a recovery in its oil division and the vehicle inspection business has been solid, while it has lagged behind peers'' valuation. Gestamp continues to outperform the industry, with a sound margin and good FCF.. CAF, despite a weaker Q3, has a strong backlog, good execution and in our view hidden value in its busses business. Logista is a defensive mid-single digit EBIT growth stock with more than 7% dividend yield. Last, but not least, Viscofan is the leader in the casing industry, gaining market share, with pricing power and a...

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