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03 Nov 2022
Q3 22 results and questions for management

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Q3 22 results and questions for management
- Published:
03 Nov 2022 -
Author:
Vesterinen Heidi HV | Tang Nicola NT -
Pages:
18 -
No surprises on Q3 after the recent pre-announcement
There was not a lot of incremental news in Novozymes'' Q3 release following the recent preannouncement. Management confirmed Q4 has started well, reaffirming its recently upgraded FY22 organic growth guidance range of 8-9% and EBIT margin range of 26-27% (we and consensus are already within the range). However they also lowered FCF guidance by DKK400m to DKK1.3-1.7bn due to phasing of the Alternative Proteins capex investment. We nudge estimates up mainly on FX and marginally on pricing. We forecast organic growth of 8.7% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023.
Input costs and pricing stepping up in 2023
Despite initial pricing efforts, Novozymes expects 250bp gross margin compression to 55% in 2022 due to input cost inflation. They do expect pricing to step up sequentially and have now confirmed more than two thirds of the price increases planned for 2023. These efforts should keep EBIT margins at or above its stated ''floor'' of 25%. This compares to an underlying margin of 26% in 2022 and suggests that they will not be able to fully recoup 2022/23 input inflation by the end of 2023 (assuming no significant change in operating costs this guidance implies a gross margin of c55%).
All the good news for H2 well known, little room for error into FY23 against tougher macro
We recently downgraded Novozymes to Underperform as the good news on current topline strength now seems to be well understood. Shares are at a 35% premium to Ingredients peers which looks vulnerable in our view for organic growth in 2023 in line with peers. We see little room for error into 2023 against a backdrop of macro uncertainty, rising interest rates, moderating commodity prices and destocking risk (and a tough comp).
If we could ask one question (more inside)
Can you discuss what you have done to secure two thirds of price increases for 2023? Does it mean you have negotiated increases for two thirds of your volumes/contracts? Or...