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13 Nov 2025
Q3 25 conference call: Earnings management mode
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Q3 25 conference call: Earnings management mode
- Published:
13 Nov 2025 -
Author:
Pearce Iain IP -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Generali management gave a positive call, outlining some clearly positive trends in both life and non-life. The Management team indicated that it was happy to ''manage'' the earnings as it is enjoying some positive claims experience, notably in PandC. We see this as a sensible process given the clearly positive claims trends which are being observed.
BNPP Exane View:
Strong net flow being driven by lower lapses: The net inflows were particularly strong in Q3. The net inflows in Q3 of EUR4bn which is the highest level in a quarter in a number of years. This puts the company above the full year expectation at 9M 25. This has not been led by new premium growth. New premiums are relatively flat yoy in many markets. However, outflows are significantly lower with lapse in France and Italy largely normalised. This has been the main driver of the increase in net inflows.
Significant premium increases for Generali''s main markets: On the call, General Manager Marco Sesana stated that pricing effect remained very significant at 9 months at plus 6.4% for motor and plus 5.2% for non-motor, retail and SME. However, the pricing momentum has been even more significant in Generali''s key markets. The average earned premium increase for the top 10 market exceeded 10% at nine months. This compared to a risk premium increase of just 1%.
Frequency benefits the main driver of low-risk premium increase: This risk premium increase appears low vs. sustained inflationary trends in a number of areas of claims. This is attributed to a very benign frequency trend. The company do see a long-term picture of declining frequency and expect that to continue. However, the scope of the benefit has seemingly been larger than anticipated. With an expectation that this continues, we expect this will begin to be priced in.
Net Income guidance: CFO Cristiano Borean guided that he expected that an adjusted net profit of EUR4.25bn would be a good estimate for 2025. Consensus...