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08 Nov 2024
Q3 in line, Q4 guide below

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Q3 in line, Q4 guide below
- Published:
08 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Gelebart Laurent LG -
Pages:
10 -
Q3 sales up 11% yoy
Q3 sales came in at EUR949m up 10.9% yoy (reported) and 11.1% yoy (organic). It came in line with the consensus. Per divisions, street furniture was positively oriented up 8.8% organic notably boosted by the Olympics in France. Transport organic growth was a tad below at 15.5% with underlying growth in China muted (double-digit overall growth with the positive impact of the Shenzhen contract). Finally, Billboard was also strong up 7.9% organic supported by France and RoW.
Olympics and digital were key drivers in the quarter
For the quarter, digital sales were still solid at +18.5% organic implying 38.5% of group sales. Analog was boosted by the Olympics. In France, contribution of the Olympics was cEUR25m in Q3.
Q4 guide below on comps and macro
JC Decaux now expects low single digit organic growth in Q4 as compared to the consensus of 6.7%. Macro uncertainties in France and in the UK as well as a soft China are the main reasons behind the same. In China, flat sales are expected. It is restated for the Shenzhen contract; it means that the underlying growth should decline by a double-digit rate with weakness across all verticals. We believe the impact should be partially offset by rents relief.
Cutting estimates and TP, Neutral reiterated
We cut our Q4 organic growth to 3.3% (from 9.1%). In view of the operating deleverage and the level of fixed costs embedded in the activity, the impact on EPS is meaningful. We also cut our expectations for FY25e, turning notably more cautious on organic growth. Accordingly, our DCF-based TP is cut to EUR18 (from EUR22). Macro-uncertainties are unlikely to be supportive in the short term.