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08 Oct 2024
Q3 Pre-close feedback

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Q3 Pre-close feedback
- Published:
08 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Pearson Stuart SP -
Pages:
9 -
What happened? Renault has just held its Q3 group pre-close call (sell-side only). Detailed feedback is included below, but the key points are:
. Guidance: Confirm FY guidance despite tougher operating environment. 2 months of orders support trajectory into year-end and confident on Q4 volumes. IR states that Renault should be ''counter-cyclical'' in this environment. Notes that peer profit warnings all have some company-specific drivers that do not affect RNO (e.g. China, inventory etc).
. Market: Conditions still intense and dynamic, and notes markets are still 4-5m units below pre-covid. Thus, stresses need for fresh product. Nonetheless expect to give back some pricing in H2 via content.
. Mix: Product mix should remain positive in H2 thanks to the impact of new products. Geographic mix slightly negative, however.
Detailed Feedback:
Volume and demand:
. Registrations - July and Aug -8.6% YoY due to high comparison base (+10.2% prior year due to return of component supply). September 2024 expected flat YoY - MSD decline in Europe offset by international growth. Thus, expect registrations down MSD in Q3. Expect -ve impact on auto revenue, but expect this to reverse in Q4. Volume effect will be strongly supported by impact of new product launches.
. Inventory: Healthy management continues. Were at 500k total inventory at H1 - this increases seasonally at the end of Q3, but still at a healthy level. Independent dealer stock back in line with regular seasonal effects, and will not show the same level of destocking as the 93k units of Q3''23, but will still be an important destocking effect (at dealer level).
. Orders: Above 2 months of sales versus 2.6 at H1, but notes H1 order book always higher in months'' sales as Q3 seasonally weaker sales, and the calculation is forward looking.
Pricing and mix:
. Market mix slightly negative due to Brazil.
. Product mix was +ve in H1, and expect gradual improvement in H2 on product support.
. Pricing: Continue...