Previewing Euro Oil Services Q3s - a brighter picture than recent performance suggests We preview Euro OFS Q3s in this note. With Brent crude prices down c10% in the last 3 months and falling below $70/bbl briefly, the sector is down 12% in absolute terms, underperforming both EU Energy and the broader market by 7% and 14% respectively. This despite exposure to typically longer cycle OandG capex, healthy backlogs and continued recovery in earnings as we wrote about recently in Something''s Gotta Give. Saipem (+): Record offshore order intake masks a slower quarter for others Saipem''s $7bn+ of offshore order intake in Saudi Arabia and Qatar is the highest in the division''s history, driving group book-to-bill 2.0x with 40% of ABS targeted order intake over 2024-27 achieved in 9M24. With SPM''s 2-year ban from contracting with Petrobras annulled in the Brazilian courts this month, subject to an ''administrative counter-appeal phase'', several high value SURF opportunities may soon be added to its EUR53bn tendering pipeline. Following record order intake in 2Q, Subsea 7 (=) had a more subdued quarter for awards though we''d expect the company to be well-positioned for at least one ''super-major'' order prospect in 4Q24, namely Buzios-10 in Brazil. It''s an important quarter for TechnipFMC (=), Vallourec (+) and Aker Solutions (=) TechnipFMC will update 2025 guidance in its Subsea division this week, with consensus factoring in EBITDA growth of 23% y/y and 18.7% margin (vs 18% originally guided). We think Aker Solutions could raise revenue guidance for a 3rd consecutive quarter, while Vallourec (a top pick) may opt to re-initiate returns to shareholders for the first time since 2015 through share or warrant buybacks. Key themes for 3Q24 calls: customer capex, competition and pricing upside, de-risking orders With the IEA''s oil market balances suggesting oversupplied markets next year even before the return of curtailed OPEC+ barrels, we''d look for any signs of...