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29 Oct 2020
Q320 results and 15 questions for management

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Q320 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
29 Oct 2020 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Menteshashvili Giorgi GM | Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
13 -
Summary of Q320 results
A much stronger than expected Q320 for ABInBev on both the top- and bottom-line. LFL sales growth at +4.0% was meaningfully ahead of consensus (-4.2%) driven by volume growth (+1.9% vs. cons. at -3.9%). Asia Pacific aside, all regions were materially ahead of consensus with South America with +19.5% LFL sales growth (cons. +0.3%) being a particular standout. Turning towards the bottom-line, LFL EBITDA declined by -0.8% (cons: -9.3%) to drive EBITDA of USD4.9bn (+9.9% vs. cons.). In the midst of so much positive news, one notable negative point was the passing of the interim dividend.
News
With respect to the reported possibility of CEO succession, CEO Carlos Brito commented that he ''will be doing these kind of calls with you for many quarters to come''.
Earnings
We revise our FY20e by +10% reflecting the stronger than expected Q3 delivery and our read through to Q4. Our FY21e/FY22e EPS is revised by +3/2%.
Investment thesis
While we believe that the shift to a more balanced top-line model is the right route for ABInBev to pursue, we believe that the transition may be more lengthy / difficult than the market expects. In addition, given the current environment, we have limited appetite for high financial leverage.
Rating / target price
We maintain our Underperform rating. Our target price moves from EUR42 to EUR45.
15 questions for management
With Carlos Brito seemingly set to stay in the CEO role for many quarters to come, what do you believe lay behind the recent press reports that the Board was considering CEO succession?