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28 Oct 2021
Q321 results and 15 questions for management

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Q321 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
28 Oct 2021 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Menteshashvili Giorgi GM | Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
15 -
Summary of Q321 results
A strong quarter for ABInBev with LFL sales growth of +7.9% coming materially ahead of consensus (co. cons: +4.2%) due to a material beat in South America (+24.8% LFL vs. co. cons. at +10.3%). Turning towards the bottom-line, LFL EBITDA growth of +3.0% was 5.3% ahead of co. consensus and absolute EBITDA at USD5,214m was 7.2% ahead of co. consensus. The only fly in the beer (so to speak) was the complete absence of an interim dividend.
News
We highlight that Altria (owner of 185m ABInBev shares) today commented that selling its investment in ABInBev at this time would not maximise long-term shareholder value, and therefore it currently plans to maintain its investment. Note: Utilising the 30th Sept. share price (USD49), Altria wrote down the carrying value of its ABInBev investment by c.35%.
Earnings
We revise our FY21e/FY22e/FY23e EPS by c.+3%.
Investment thesis
While we are not great fans of the beer sector, we are mindful that ABInBev is a relatively highly leveraged re-opening beneficiary.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating and revise our target price from EUR55.5 to EUR58.
15 questions for management
Reading through the filings, you do not appear to have offered any comment on what your thoughts are on President Biden''s Executive Order to investigate competition in the alcohol industry. Can you please share your thoughts with us?