Summary of Q322 sales Carlsberg Q3 LFL sales growth at +11.6% came in-line with company consensus (+11.7%) with volume growth a little light (+3.6% vs. co. cons +4.2%) but price / mix a little ahead (+7.7% vs. co. cons +7.1%). From a regional perspective, LFL sales in Asia surprised positively at +19.3% (co. cons +17.0%) whereas Western Europe LFL at +5.7% was below consensus expectation (+8.1%) driven by price / mix. Carlsberg upgraded its FY22 organic operating profit growth outlook to +10-12% (from a previous expectation of high-single digit growth). News We highlight that despite inflationary pressures and deteriorating consumer sentiment in Western Europe, in most of its markets, Carlsberg has not yet seen any material down trading. Earnings We revised our FY22e / FY23e / FY24e EPS by -1% / -3% / -2%. Investment thesis We are concerned on the outlook for the European consumer and of the three European brewing majors, Carlsberg is the one with the biggest European exposure. Rating and target price We maintain our Neutral rating; our target price moves from DKK1,020 to DKK1,000. 15 questions for management In which of your markets do you see most risk of downtrading / demand softness in 2023?