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28 Oct 2022
Q322 sales and 15 questions for management

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Q322 sales and 15 questions for management
Danone (BN:EPA), 0 | Danone SA (BN:PAR), 0
- Published:
28 Oct 2022 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS -
Pages:
12 -
Summary of Q322 sales
Q3 LFL sales growth at +9.5% was materially above co. consensus expectations (+6.9%). The development reflected +10.9% price (co. cons: +7.9%) and -1.4% vol/mix (co cons: -0.9%). Excluding Russia, LFL sales growth was +10.0%, price was +10.2% and vol/mix was -0.2%. While vol/mix was materially positive in both SN and Waters, it declined by -6.0% in EDP due to a number of factors (we estimate that Russia impacted by around -2.3%).
News
We highlight that Danone has been actively pruning some underperforming brands / SKUs and this impacted the volume/mix performance in EDP Europe.
Earnings
We leave our FY22e/FY23e/FY24e EPS broadly unchanged.
Investment thesis
While Danone is relatively inexpensive, we have structural concerns on parts of the portfolio, most notably Chinese infant formula which we estimate accounts for close to 1/4 of EBIT.
Rating / target price
We maintain our Underperform rating. Our TP moves from EUR52 to EUR50.
15 questions for management
Many of your Chinese infant formula peers (Ausnutria, Feihe, HandH) have seen their share prices collapse this year and now trade on absurdly low valuations if consensus is to be believed, what is your understanding as to why this has been the case?