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27 Jan 2023
Q323 sales and 15 questions for management
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Q323 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
27 Jan 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
14 -
Summary of Q323 sales
Q3 LFL sales at Remy Cointreau declined -6.0%, slightly ahead of co. cons at -6.7% and broadly in-line with the mid-to-high single digit LFL decline guided by the company at H123 results. LFL sales in the Cognac division declined -11.0% (co. cons -11.4%) with Remy Cointreau commenting on mid-teens growth in Mainland China more than offset by a very strong double-digit decline in the US. LFL sales in the Liqueurs and Spirits division grew +10.1% (co. cons +8.9%) driven by mid-teens growth in the US.
News
We highlight that Remy Cointreau expects to experience a group LFL sales decline in Q124 and H124 driven by continued normalisation in US cognac consumption trends and the phasing of comps.
Earnings
We revise our FY23e / FY24e / FY25e EPS by c.0% / c.-4% / c.-3%, driven by a combination of updated FX and revised LFL growth assumptions.
Investment thesis
Our FY23e/FY24e estimates are broadly consensual, and we struggle to envisage a re-rating in the shares until fears over slowdown in US Cognac have passed.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR175 to EUR170.
15 questions for management
What gives you confidence that the increase in penetration that the Cognac category experienced in the US through the pandemic will not revert to pre-pandemic levels?