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31 Oct 2023
Q323 sales and 15 questions for management

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Q323 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
31 Oct 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
18 -
Summary of Q323 sales
Carlsberg Q3 LFL sales grew +5.8%, broadly in-line with consensus expectation (co. cons. +5.6%). However, volume growth missed in all regions (group LFL vols -3.0% vs. co. cons -1.4%) and this was offset by a price / mix beat (+9.1% vs. co. cons. +7.0%) which was arguably a touch flattered (we estimate c.+80bp impact on group Q3 LFL) by the inclusion of UK excise duties following the termination of the Kronenbourg 1664 licensee agreement. Carlsberg kept its FY LFL EBIT guidance range (+4-7%) unchanged but this now includes additional commercial investment of DKK200m in the remainder of the year.
News
We highlight that Carlsberg is conducting a review of its SAIL''27 strategy, the conclusions of which will be shared in February. While no dramatic changes should be expected, the review will focus on the allocation of resources and how / where to invest to ensure that Carlsberg captures its growth opportunities.
Earnings
We revise our FY23e / FY24e / FY25e EPS by c.-2%.
Investment thesis
While the valuation of the stock is undemanding, we see better value in Heineken and ABInBev.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from DKK1,050 to DKK965.
15 questions for management
While appreciating that it is still early days, what are the new CEO''s first impressions of Carlsberg''s digital capabilities?