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31 Oct 2024
Q324 results and 15 questions for management

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Q324 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
31 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
16 -
Summary of Q324 results
ABInBev Q3 LFL sales growth at +2.1% was a -130bp miss vs. co. cons. The miss was driven by volumes (-2.4% vs. co. cons. -0.4%) while LFL rev./HL growth was ahead of expectation (+4.6% vs. co. cons. +3.9%). By region, the primary sources of the LFL sales miss were the Middle Americas and Asia Pacific where China Q3 LFL sales declined -16.1% (vols -14.2%) and EBITDA -21.1%. Q3 volume growth in North America (-0.4% vs. co. cons. -2.2%) was ahead of expectation but was arguably flattered by an additional selling day in the quarter. Turning to profits, Q3 LFL EBITDA growth at +7.1% was a small miss (co. cons. +8.6%) but USD EBITDA was c.-5% miss. Q3 EPS (basic, underlying) at USD0.98 was a c.+7% beat (driven by lower finance costs and tax).
News
We highlight that ABInBev announced a USD2bn share buyback to be completed over the next 12 months.
Earnings
We revise our FY24e / FY25e / FY26e EPS estimates by -2% / -7% / -7%, roughly driven half by reduction to organic profit growth forecasts and half by updated FX.
Investment thesis
We expect material share buybacks to drive a mid-teens TSR from FY25 at ABInBev.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves from EUR69 to EUR65.
15 questions for management
Should we interpret the announcement of the USD2bn with Q3 results as the limit of share repurchase activity over the next 12 months?