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Q324 sales and 15 questions for management
Danone (BN:EPA), 0 | Danone SA (BN:PAR), 0
- Published:
24 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Queulvee Camille CQ -
Pages:
14 -
Summary of Q324 sales
LFL sales growth of +4.2% was c.30bp ahead of co. cons, with volume/mix at +3.6% coming 70bp ahead and pricing at +0.7% modestly (-0.2%) below. Taking a divisional perspective, we note that while Waters LFL was 90bp below VA consensus (adverse weather conditions in Europe and Mexico), EDP was 80bp above and SN was 50bp above. As a consequence, one could argue that the mix of the delivery reflected a more positive development than suggested by the modest LFL beat at the group level.
News
We highlight that Danone is seeing the first signs of recovery in the Chinese IMF market.
Earnings
We revise our FY24e/FY25e/FY26e EPS by +1%.
Investment thesis
While Danone offers temptation as a turnaround play, post a material re-rating in FY23/FY24 we believe a further re-rating may be harder to come by. To chase the stock from here we would need to have confidence that Danone can sustain over 4% LFL sales growth over the mid-term, this is confidence that we do not currently have.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR66 to EUR67.
15 questions for management
Notwithstanding the positive impact of protein and Alpro performing well, your European EDP performance (+0.9% LFL in Q3) remains distinctly lacklustre, what is dragging the performance of this segment and are there any reasons to believe that it should improve?