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31 Oct 2024
Q324 sales and 15 questions for management

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Q324 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
31 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
16 -
Summary of Q324 sales
Q3 LFL sales at Carlsberg grew +1.3% and missed consensus expectations by c.-100bp. Organic volumes declined -0.2% (co. cons. +0.4%) made up of a Beer vols decline of -1.3% partially offset by Other beverage vol. growth of +5.1%. From a regional perspective, strength in CEE and India (LFL sales +9.8% vs. co. cons. +8.0%) was offset by weakness in Western Europe (LFL sales +0.1% vs. co. cons. +1.7%) and Asia (LFL sales -3.3% vs. co. cons. -2.0%).
News
We highlight that Carlsberg is confident that it can deliver the high-end of its +4-6% FY24 organic EBIT guidance range.
Earnings
Our FY24e / FY25e / FY26e EPS are materially unchanged.
Investment thesis
As the market digests the Britvic acquisition and re-appraises the merits of being a Pepsi bottling consolidator, we expect the stock to recover its multiple on a higher earnings base.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves from DKK1,000 to DKK1,020.
15 questions for management
Excluding the impact of the loss of the San Miguel UK license, do you expect to be within your long-term organic sales growth ambition range of +4-6% next year?