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17 Apr 2025
Q325 conf call: expect modest growth in Q4
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Q325 conf call: expect modest growth in Q4
- Published:
17 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
9 -
BNPP Exane view
To our mind the main points of note from the call were that ex. both positive (US wholesale stocking) and negative (India customs / production disruption; v. high GTR comps; Easter timing) technical phasing impacts Q3 LFL sales would have declined -2.1%. Underlying performance in Q4 is not expected to change significantly but bearing in mind reversal of the above impacts, Pernod Ricard sees group LFL sales in Q4 as probably being in modest growth (Q4 implied co. cons +1.2%; BBG cons. -0.5%). With FY26 guidance for an improvement in organic sales growth also re-iterated, we found the call directionally re-assuring. As to the shares, the broadly flat reaction feels fair to us.
Highlights: QandA
. Europe: re-iterate that see resilience in Europe with growth in significant markets such as France and UK. Q3 was more challenging in Spain saw a robust decline and in Germany the macro environment in challenging and a very high comps (+36%) with some technicalities in the base with some stock replenishment. A reminder that Q3 is a very small quarter in Europe.
. US shipment phasing: sell-out is c.-6% volumes, c.-5% in value. Difficult to be precise on what to expect in Q4 as inventory might continue to be impacted by tariff uncertainty. From a sell-out perspective continue to close the gap with the market and expect that to continue in Q4 with exciting brand activations to come (e.g. around Father''s day and festivals such as Coachella).
. Tariff impact on PandL: in FY25 the main impact of tariffs is in China.
. Q3 phasing: adjusting Q3 numbers for all technicalities group LFL sales would have been c.-2% so slightly better than Q2. 2/3rd of business is growing in H1 and Pernod Ricard expect Q4 LFL sales to probably be in modest growth.
. FY26: re-iterate expect improvement in organic sales growth next year.
. India: underlying performance remains strong and the portfolio is well positioned. Expect solid growth this year.
. Inventories:...