BNPP Exane view The main point of note from the call was that Carlsberg expects the beer market in China to remain in decline in Q4 but for its business to be in volume growth. While expectation of positive Q4 vols is not a great surprise (given the phasing of sell-in comps.) it was a reassuring comment nevertheless. Overall, we continue to think a flattish share price reaction is warranted to the in-line update today and therefore view the slightly negative (c.-1%) reaction as a touch harsh. Highlights: QandA . China: do not see any different momentum in Q3, the on-trade is weak there hasn''t been a sharp decline but a continued decline. The overall market is down c.-2%. Big Cities are growing +MSD for Carlsberg which is positive from a product mix perspective. Western strongholds are down -LSD which is in-line with market. Going forward do not see any change in the broader themes. . Poland: the market is very, very tough. Carlsberg volumes declined -DD and gained market share. YTD estimate the beer market decline is c.-6% with a soft consumer and tough weather comp. Premium and AFB is growing but mainstream is declining. Too early to guide on 2026 but do not expect a rebound in Poland. . China anti-extravagance: not seeing any decisive change in the on-trade channel in China. Have heard many opposing views on the impact of the decree and think it''s too early to make a call on easing. Carlsberg remains focussed on how it can expand in the off-trade (1L cans doing very well). In Q4 expect market to decline in Q4 but expect positive volume growth in Q4 as comps are easier and volumes will be supported by commercial investments. . Vietnam: have seen market share bottoming out, now c.9% and expecting to see sequential improvement in vols in Q4 and hoping to be positive in 2026. . Ukraine: Q3 vols decline is around -20% driven by intensified bombings and unfavourable weather. Do not expect such a big decline in Ukraine in 2026 but need to navigate a...