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30 Oct 2025
Q325 sales and 15 questions for management
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Q325 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
30 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
16 -
Summary of Q325 sales
Carlsberg Q325 LFL sales declined -1.4% (co. cons. -1.6%) driven by a volume decline of -3.0% (in-line with co. cons.). Excluding the impact of the San Miguel UK license loss, Carlsberg''s Q3 LFL vols declined -1.7%. Total organic beer volumes declined -4.0% while soft drink volumes grew +4%. Volumes in China were flat in the quarter in a weak market which Carlsberg estimates declined c.-2%. Carlsberg re-iterated all elements of its FY25 outlook including expectation of +3-5% organic EBIT growth.
News
We highlight that Carlsberg expects the overall Chinese beer market to remain in decline in Q4 but for its business to achieve positive volume growth supported by easy sell-in comps. and its commercial investments.
Earnings
We revise our FY25e / FY26e / FY27e EPS by +0-1%.
Investment thesis
Given Carlsberg''s reliance on market-share driven growth in China, we see better value in the other EU Brewers.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating and DKK850 target price (ADR USD26.4 from USD26.6).
15 questions for management
Please could you share some more colour on what drove the sequential deceleration in the China beer industry volume growth between H1 and Q3?