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17 Apr 2025
Q325 sales and 15 questions for management
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Q325 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
17 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
16 -
Summary of Q325 sales
Pernod Ricard Q3 LFL sales declined -3.2%, a small miss vs. consensus expectation (co. cons. -2.0%) which was primarily driven by Europe (-6.8% vs. co. cons. -0.1%). Excluding both positive (wholesaler stocking ahead of tariff announcements which contributed to +2% LFL sales growth in the US) and negative (India customs clearance procedures / temporary production interruption; very high GTR comps; and Easter timing) phasing technicalities, Pernod Ricard estimates the Q3 LFL sales decline would have been -2.1%. Pernod Ricard announced an interim dividend of EUR2.35 (equal to 50% of the PY FY divi, in-line with its policy).
News
We highlight that while Pernod Ricard does not expect a significant change in its underlying performance in Q4, given the reversal of technical phasing impacts, it sees Q4 LFL sales as likely being in modest growth.
Earnings
We revise our FY25e/FY26e/FY27e EPS by c.+1% / c.-1% / c.-1%.
Investment thesis
While Pernod Ricard is cheap, we struggle to envisage a near-term recovery in the stock''s valuation.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR95 to EUR94.
15 questions for management
Do you see the expected sequential improvement in your group organic sales growth in FY26 (vs. FY25) as being primarily driven by volumes or price / mix?