BNPP Exane View
Q3 LFL sales and volumes are in-line with consensus expectation (the shape by region is also broadly in-line) and FY25 guidance is unchanged. We expect a neutral share price reaction.
Q325 headline metrics
. Q3 LFL sales: -1.4% (co. cons: -1.6%; BBG cons. -0.9%)
. Q3 LFL vol: -3.0% (co. cons: -3.0%; BBG cons. -2.8%)
. Q3 price / mix: +1.6% (co. cons: +1.4%; BBG cons. +1.9%)
Top-line drivers
Scanning the Q3 top-line drivers by region, we note that the Q3 LFL sales decline of -1.4% (vs. co. cons. -1.6%) was driven by Western Europe (-1.2% vs. co. cons. -1.6%) and Asia (-0.6% vs. co. cons. -0.8%) which both came in ahead of consensus expectations, offset by softer trends in Central and Eastern Europe and India (-2.8% vs. co. cons. -1.7%), led by weaker volume trends (-5.2% vs. co. cons. -4.1%) where Carlsberg comments on a significant volume decline in Ukraine.
Bottom-line drivers
N/A - only a sales update.
Other metrics
. Sam Miguel: Q3 group volumes declined -1.7% excluding San Miguel and grew +1.3% in Western Europe.
. China: volumes were flat in Q3 in a market which Carlsberg estimates declined c.-2%.
. India: volumes were impacted by the monsoon but growth resumed at the end of the quarter.
. Soft drinks: vols +4% (cf. H1 flat).
. Britvic: Britvic organic volumes grew +4% in both the UK and Ireland. Total Britvic vols declined -1.5% due to business optimisation out of the UKandI, including termination of certain contracts and SKU rationalisation. Integration and synergy delivery remain on track.
. AFB: vols declined -2% (+6% ex. Ukraine)
. Beyond Beer: volumes declined -10% (cf. H1 vols slightly down).
FY25 outlook (unchanged)
. LFL EBIT: +3-5% (co. cons. +4.0%).
. FX on EBIT: expect translation impact of around -DKK200m excluding the impact of hyperinflation accounting in Laos which will be included in scope (BBG cons. -DKK223m).
. Net finance expenses ex. FX: c.DKK2.4bn ex. FX (co. cons. DKK2.4bn inc. FX).
. Tax: c.23% (co....
