BNPP Exane view While there was little incremental news from the call, the tone of the management team was confident. We would put the market enthusiasm for the shares which strengthened through the call (now c.+5-6%) down to a combination of this confident tone; re-assuring guidance and comment on a good start to the year in China. This said, given that we expect consensus earnings to be subject to downgrades rather than upgrades we are surprised at the extent of the positive share price move and would not be surprised to see some paring of the gains. Highlights: QandA . Assumptions on guidance: have been heavily impacted by a weaker consumer in recent years due to inflation. Not assuming any change in overall consumer sentiment in the guidance. So, a change in this, particularly in China could drive Carlsberg to the high end of the range. An important factor will be Chinese New Year. Weather will also be an important factor in Europe. . China: in Q4 in China saw a decline as focussed on getting to distributor levels healthy going into 2025. Looking into Q1, had a solid start with good sell-in despite a solid comp. Need to see how wholesalers'' re-stock after January. Not calling for a significant change in China but given the start in January think got the level of destock in Q4 right. . COGS/HL: there is good momentum on driving savings in COGS line. In 2025 expect COGS/HL to be about flattish and on commodities have seen declines in barley and sugar. Others have increased such as aluminium and barley. Salaries and therefore conversion costs will increase. . Capex: underlying capex is still DKK5-5.5bn and then another EUR100m of Kazakhstan bottling investment and then Britvic capex of DKK0.8bn. . Pricing outlook: can''t be specific but broadly expect positive pricing impact across markets (inc. WE). Still see total costs slightly up. Market-by-market there will be variation but need to cover cost increases. . France: when looking at 2024 the...