BNPP Exane View
Q4 LFL sales are a c.-1% miss (driven by vols). Turning to the outlook, the mid-point of FY25 LFL EBIT guidance is in-line with consensus expectations, and this is typically re-assuring given Carlsberg''s habit of guiding conservatively. However, driven by higher tax guidance we expect consensus earnings to be subject to c.-3-4% downward revision. Keeping the material YTD strength of the shares in mind, we expect a negative share price reaction this morning (c.-2-3%).
Q4/FY24 headline metrics
. Q4 LFL: 0.0% (co. cons: +1.2%; VA cons. +1.1%)
. Q4 vol: -1.2% (co. cons: -0.1%; VA cons. -0.3%)
. Q4 price / mix: +1.2% (co. cons: +1.2%; VA cons. +1.3%)
. FY LFL EBIT: +6.0% (co. cons: +5.7%)
. FY EBIT: DKK11,411m (-0.5% vs. co. cons.)
. FY EPS (adj., cont.): DKK54.9 (+5% vs. co. cons.) the beat at EPS appears to be driven by lower finance costs.
. DPS: DKK27.0 (co. cons. DKK27.0)
Note: Q4 company consensus has been backed out of the FY.
Q4 Top-line drivers
Scanning the top-line drivers by region the Q424 flat LFL sales performance (vs. co. cons. +1.2%) was led by weaker-than-expected sales in Asia (-4.7% vs. co. cons. -1.5%), driven by both volume and price/mix, and Central and Eastern Europe and India (+2.7% vs. co. cons. +6.5%) which was partially offset by better trends in Western Europe (+0.8% vs. co. cons. -0.1%) where we note vols missed but price /mix was a material beat.
FY Bottom-line drivers
The +10bp YOY FY EBIT margin expansion reflects GM +120bp, Marketing, selling and distribution -70bp, Admin -30bp, Other Op. Income (net) -10p and Associate / JV profits 0bp. From a regional perspective, we note that FY LFL EBIT the modest FY24 LFL EBIT beat (+6.0% vs. co. cons. +5.7%) was led by Asia (+7.9% vs. VA cons. +2.6%) and Western Europe (+5.2% vs. VA cons. +3.3%), while Central and Eastern Europe and India came in below expectations (+9.6% vs. VA cons. +13.3%).
Other metrics
. Net debt: DKK27.4bn (co. cons. DKK27.5bn)
. FCF: DKK6.4bn (VA...
