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27 Feb 2025
Q4 results first take: soft Q4 and early indication for Q1 2025; FY 2025 guidance below sell-side estimates
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Q4 results first take: soft Q4 and early indication for Q1 2025; FY 2025 guidance below sell-side estimates
- Published:
27 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Poutrieux Thomas TP -
Pages:
9 -
What happened?
Sopra Steria delivered a soft end to the year, highlighting market conditions deterioration in Q4, and Q1 2025 early growth indication of -5%/-6% implying further deterioration, though it is expected to be lowest growth quarter of the year, with FY 2025 LFL growth seen at -2.5% to +0.5%. In more details:
. Reported group revenue were down -2.7%LFL in the quarter vs. cons. at -1.2% (see details on p. 2), hit by the UK down -9.4% LFL on the back of high comps, and major contract expiration. France deteriorated to -2% LFL vs. c. -1% LFL in Q3, hit by aero, which we do not see as a major surprise following CAP''s release.
. In H2, adjusted EBIT margin reached 9.9%, in line with consensus, but -2% below in absolute terms
. FCF was very strong, reaching EUR432.1m for the year vs. guidance for c. EUR350m, helped by a EUR54.2m working capital inflow
Headcount reached 50,998 at year-end 2024, down -1.5% YOY and -1.7% QoQ.
Guidance for 2025 is disappointing vs. sell-side estimates: the company sees -2.5% to +0.5% LFL growth this year, with Q1 indicated at -5% to -6%, which should be the lowest point of the year, likely hit by the UK and France.
Adjusted EBIT margin range is expected between 9.3% - 9.8% vs. cons. 10.0%: This includes 30bps headwind from higher employer''s payroll contribution in the UK and France, at the high-end of the 10-30bps we were expecting.
Sopra Steria does not commit to a firm FCF guidance in absolute EUR terms. The company expects 5-7% FCF margin, in line with the midterm targets. In the midpoint of the revenue guidance, it implies a wide range of c. EUR290m to slightly more than EUR400m, in our estimate. This wide range probably reflects uncertainties around working capital outflows this year following an unexpectedly strong performance on that front in 2024.
BNPP Exane View:
We find the FY 2025 guidance on LFL revenue growth OK vs. CAP''s -3%/0% implied organic growth outlook for the year. However, the magnitude of...