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25 Feb 2021
Q420 results and 15 questions for management

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Q420 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
25 Feb 2021 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Menteshashvili Giorgi GM | Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
13 -
Summary of Q420 results
While LFL revenues at +4.5% were c.270bp ahead of consensus expectations (driven by South America with LFL sales growth of +17.4% vs. consensus at +10.6%), profits were materially below consensus. Although LFL EBITDA growth at -2.4% was only modestly below consensus (-1.0%), adjusting for the impact of some Brazilian tax credits, we estimate that absolute EBITDA at USD4.6bn was c.-4.5% below consensus expectations. Again adjusting for Brazilian tax credits, we estimate underlying EPS at USD0.65, was c.-16% below consensus expectations.
News
We highlight that Ambev (ABInBev''s Brazilian subsidiary) is guiding that cash COGs/hl are expected to increase in the low 20%''s in FY21.
Earnings
We revise our FY21e/FY22e/FY23e EPS estimates by c. -8%/-9%. This reflects the impact of c. -3%/-4% revisions to our EBIT estimates being amplified by financial leverage and below-the-line items.
Investment thesis
While we are not great fans of the beer sector, we believe ABInBev is a relatively inexpensive reopening beneficiary.
Rating / target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR62 to EUR57.
15 questions for management
You guided that FY21 EBITDA margins will be under pressure. Given that consensus looks for modest margin expansion, should we assume that under pressure means meaningfully down?