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02 Mar 2023
Q422 results and 15 questions for management

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Q422 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
02 Mar 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
15 -
Summary of Q422 results
EPS aside, Q422 results were generally below co. consensus expectations. LFL sales growth at +10.2% was -0.8% below co. consensus with a +2.1% revenue/hl beat failing to offset a -2.7% volume miss. To contextualise the latter, we note that Carlsberg posted a -90bp volume miss in Q4 and Heineken posted a -1.2% volume miss in Q4. While LFL EBITDA growth at +7.6% was +50bp ahead of co. consensus, reported EBITDA at USD4.9bn was -2.2% below, with this miss being principally driven by weakness in Asia Pacific. Underlying EPS at USD0.86 was materially (+18.7%) ahead of co. consensus primarily due to an unusually low tax rate (12.2%).
News
We highlight that Bud APAC commented that in China, restaurant and nightlife channels have almost fully re-opened by the end of February, hence it is optimistic about business recovery in FY23 following a transitional quarter in Q1.
Earnings
We revise our FY23e/FY24e/FY25e EPS by c.(3)-(4)% as a consequence of a modest EBIT revision (c.(1)%) being amplified by increased net finance cost estimates.
Investment thesis
While there are many sceptics on the name, with leverage quickly reducing and FY24 looking much better from a cost perspective, we believe it is open to positive reappraisal.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our TP moves from EUR66 to EUR65.
15 questions for management
Does deleverage remain your overwhelming priority at present, or would you conceptually have interest if Altria were to seek to exit some of its c.10% stake?