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27 Feb 2025
Q424 results and 15 questions for management

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Q424 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
27 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Lim Joan JL | Tang Nicola NT -
Pages:
16 -
Summary of Q424 results
Q4 organic growth came in at +7% (of which 5% volume, 2% price) and in line with consensus of +7.2%. Growth was ahead of expectations in Household care but light elsewhere. H2 adj PF EBITDA of EUR738m was -1% below consensus with margins of 36.8% vs consensus of 37.1%.
News
For FY25, Novonesis expects organic growth to be 5-8% with both divisions growing within the range. Growth is expected to be led by volume, with ~1% pricing and revenue synergies contributing 1%. EBITDA margins are expected to be between 37-38% driven by stronger gross margin and full year impact of cost synergies (at 80% run rate).
Earnings and target price
We nudge up FY25 EBITDA estimates by 1% and raise our FY26 estimates by 5% reflecting the Feed Enzymes Alliance acquisition.
Investment thesis
We are cautious on the longer-term organic growth and premium valuation of Novonesis. We are not yet convinced that the merger will fully address concerns on the sustainability of longer-term growth, and revenue synergies could be long dated.
15 questions for management
Management expects a ~1% revenue contribution from revenue synergies in FY25, mainly in Food and Beverages, Human Health and Ag, Energy and Tech. Can you share some examples?