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31 Jul 2024
Raising EPS & TP on strong launches; still upside from pipeline
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Raising EPS & TP on strong launches; still upside from pipeline
UCB (UCB:EBR), 0 | UCB S.A. (UCB:BRU), 0
- Published:
31 Jul 2024 -
Author:
Parkes Richard RP | Steventon Gary GS | Floch Victor VF -
Pages:
13 -
Raising EPS and TP on strong 1H24; further upside still from pipeline execution
We are raising our forecasts and target price on strong Bimzelx and Rystiggo launch momentum and improved confidence in the margin outlook. Despite recent share price performance, we continue to see the shares valuation as undemanding given the very strong growth on offer and see significant potential for upside on remaining pipeline readouts. We believe UCB offers unique exposure to innovation-driven growth in EU mid cap Biopharma.
Raising forecasts on strong execution; 24-28E sales/Core EPS CAGR = 11%/31%
We have raised our 2024-28E sales and Core EPS forecasts by 2-5% and 3-9% respectively given strong new launch performance in 1H24 and improved confidence in the trajectory of expected margin improvements. Our forecasts assume UCB delivers a 24-28E sales/Core EPS CAGR = 11%/31% with 1,000bp margin expansion driven by top line leverage, gross margin improvements and a growing contribution from Evenity.
Continued launch execution and pipeline progress to support the shares
Although pipeline updates in 1H were mixed (Rystiggo MOG-AD delay and AIE failure), we are still optimistic near-term pipeline readouts could lead to further upgrades to expectations including: (1) P2 data for Rystiggo (FMS); (2) P2/3 data on higher risk/reward largely unmodelled partnered pipeline assets (AD, PD, SLE); and most importantly, (3) P2 data on two internal atopic dermatitis antibodies (one an IL-13/IL17A/F bispecific) which could emerge as a key future growth pillar.
Increasing TP to EUR180 (from EUR160) on raised forecasts; maintaining Outperform
Our raised TP of EUR180 (from EUR160) reflects increases to our Bimzelx and Rystiggo forecasts and raised margin assumptions. This implies 24.5x 2025E Core PE in return for a 2024-28E Core EPS CAGR of 31%. We expect ongoing launch execution to continue to drive the shares, with further upside if the new pipeline delivers.