Operating trends appear to be resilient Erste is due to report 3Q results on 31 October. Revenues in 3Q should be close to 2Q levels, with NII running 1-2ppts better than the flat FY guidance, fees growing slightly, other income a little lower. We model costs increasing slightly. Credit quality remains healthy, loan loss provisions should be benign in the quarter and on track to finish comfortably within the 20bp FY24 guidance. Attributable profit should remain slightly above EUR 800m in 3Q. Waiting for news on capital deployment We would expect the CET1 ratio to remain close to 2Q''s 15.5% and increase to nearly 16% by year-end, a EUR 2-3bn surplus above the bank''s 14% target ratio. We expect the company to complete the current EUR 500m share buyback programme during 4Q. We then wait to hear news of potential Polish investments and/or deployment of surpluses into further buybacks. We are Neutral on the shares We update our estimates here, with 5-6% increases in 2024-25 profits, although 2026 little changed. We raise our price target slightly. We keep a Neutral rating on the shares, although we acknowledge some of the positive developments that are underway. The valuation gap is less than for some other banks, and the relative advantage of a mid-teens RoTE is less than it was with other banks now in a similar range.