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  • 03 Oct 2024

Re-rating and remittance risks


Assicurazioni Generali (G:BIT), 0 | Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. (G:MIL), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Pearce Iain IP

    • 19 pages


 

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Re-rating and remittance risks


Assicurazioni Generali (G:BIT), 0 | Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. (G:MIL), 0

  • Published: 03 Oct 2024
  • Author: Pearce Iain IP
  • Pages: 19
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Generali has been the top performing multilines name over the last 12 months, deservedly so in our view. It remains our preferred of these names, even if the valuation differential vs peers has closed. However, given the relative re-rating of the multilines sub-sector (see our sector note), and some concerns on forecasts, we see more attractive options elsewhere. Downgrade to Underperform. Re-rating and remittance risks In our initiation a year ago, we saw: 1) too-low earnings and cash generation expectations and 2) a discount to peers that did not reflect the de-risking of the balance sheet and the operational improvements of recent years. Looking at Generali now, we see these factors as less clear. A strong run, now time for a breath Generali has delivered 40% TSR over the last 12 months. Unlike some peers, this TSR has not been entirely rating led, even if Generali has enjoyed a re-rating. Given our view that earnings expectations are in a more reasonable position and the valuation discrepancy vs peers has decreased on our key metrics, we see limited upside in the near term. Concerns on cash remittances We are c.2% behind consensus on business unit remittances for FY24 and FY25 but 8-9% behind for 2026-27. It appears cons is over-estimating underlying remittance capacity or forecasting continued ''excess'' remittances. This feeds into potentially overly optimistic views of cash utilisation, in our view. What does the next plan have in store? Generali will host a CMD on 30 January 2025. We expect that the company will continue to outline attractive earnings growth whilst also focusing on increasing cash conversion and returns to shareholders. Despite the increased focus on cash, we are more cautious than consensus on current cash forecasts and expectations already include a recurring share buyback of EUR450-550m.

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