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  • 28 Apr 2023

Reassuring Q1, SpotFire to drive growth from 2024e on


BioMerieux (BIM:EPA), 0 | bioMerieux SA (BIM:PAR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Solvet Hugo SH | RULA Martinien MR

    • 11 pages


 

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Reassuring Q1, SpotFire to drive growth from 2024e on


BioMerieux (BIM:EPA), 0 | bioMerieux SA (BIM:PAR), 0

  • Published: 28 Apr 2023
  • Author: Solvet Hugo SH | RULA Martinien MR
  • Pages: 11
  • BNP Paribas Exane


In-line Q1 2023 sales Yesterday, BIM reported Q1 sales up 7.5%CER (EUR906m, 1% above consensus). The performance was driven by Microbiology (11.9%CER) and Industrial Applications (18.6%CER), both fuelled by a 4% price mix. Immunoassay sales declined 7%CER on strong routine testing sales (up HSD) offset by continuous volume weakness in PCT testing. Molecular biology sales were up 7.4%CER, driven by non-respiratory sales up 30%, while respiratory sales held up well (2%). BIM reiterating the FY23 is reassuring in our view FY23 sales and cEBIT growth guidance were reiterated, i.e., 4-6%CER and EUR600-630m, respectively. The comparison base in Molecular Biology will be tougher as we move into Q2 results (c30%CER), yet we see no risk of a guidance cut following the reassuring performance of the group and progress (albeit slight) made in Microbiology and Industrial Application in Q1, in our view. SpotFire meaningfully lifts BIM''s growth profile Management expects the SpotFire R Panel Mini to be CLIA waived ahead of the 2023/2024 flu season. While they commented that the sales contribution should be marginal this year (BNPPEe: no sales), we view the EUR400m 2027 sales guidance as achievable, and even more so given the group''s historical cautiousness. Integrating SpotFire into our forecasts lifts sales growth by 150bps, c300bps and 500bps over the 2024-2026e period. Reiterate Outperform, TP up to EUR110 We update our model following Q1 and integrate Spotfire into our estimates. Our TP is the average of a DCF (EUR109 vs EUR100) and FY23e EV/EBIT peer multiples (10% premium vs 0% previously. EUR112 vs EUR109) working out to EUR110 vs EUR100. BIM shares trade at 24x P/E 12m forward, a 10% premium to EU diagnostics peers QIA and DIA (vs 30% at peak pre-covid). We see BIM''s outperformance (-5% YTD) relative to peers QIA (-15%) and DIA (-25%) continuing, as the group is insulated from weak life sciences funding.

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