Post calendar 1Q24 production reporting, we update estimates for RIO (+) and BHP (=). RIO - no fireworks A largely stable set of results with 1Q24 production averaging 24% of annual mid-point guidance with no changes to guidance on production, capex or cash costs. Mined copper was a relative laggard as Kennecott was impacted by unplanned conveyor downtimes (now solved) and lower grades at Escondida. Conversely, refined copper was ahead of expectations as Kennecott returned to normal operations following the largest smelter rebuild in its history. Pilbara iron ore shipments were -5% y/y as a result of weather-related disruptions at the ports. As we integrate production results and make modest operational adjustments, our 2024 and 2025 EBITDA forecasts decrease by 1-2% but updated discount rates and risk premiums leave our TP at 6,700p (prev 6,690p). BHP - lowering BMA BHP was one of just a few miners which have reported stronger than expected copper production with +7% sequentially on the back of higher concentrator grade at Escondida and throughput at Spence, partially offset by lower volumes in Copper South Australia. The assessment remains ongoing whether to place Nickel West on care and maintenance and West Musgrave''s long-term future. BHP has noted a decision by FY24 results (August) though this wouldn''t preclude a decision sooner rather than later. Iron ore, similar to RIO, was softer than expected and the -7% q/q decline was driven by wet weather in the Pilbara, a bushfire near Yandi and the RTP-1 tie-in, partially offset by improved underlying performance. Coking coal (BMA) production was -9% vs cons and FY24 guidance was lowered again to 21.5-22.5Mt (prev 23-25Mt). We now forecast BMA at the mid-point of its new range, which is the primary driver of modest earnings revisions (FY24 and FY25 EBITDA -1%) and TP to 2,550p (prev 2,560p).