This content is only available within our institutional offering.

25 Jun 2024
Retaining Outperform; pipeline potential still overlooked

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Retaining Outperform; pipeline potential still overlooked
UCB (UCB:EBR), 0 | UCB S.A. (UCB:BRU), 0
- Published:
25 Jun 2024 -
Author:
Parkes Richard RP | Steventon Gary GS | Floch Victor VF -
Pages:
14 -
Remaining constructive: valuation still undemanding and pipeline still overlooked
We are raising our forecasts and target price on strong launch momentum, delayed Cimzia biosimilars and raised margin expectations. Although UCB''s strong growth outlook is better reflected by recent strong performance, the shares'' valuation on 2025E PE remains undemanding and we see significant potential for upside on remaining pipeline readouts and launch momentum. We believe UCB offers unique exposure to innovation-driven growth in EU mid cap Biopharma.
Raising forecasts on strong launches; 24-28E sales/Core EPS CAGR = 11%/30%
We have raised our Bimzelx (peak now EUR4.0bn), Rystiggo (peak now EUR800m) and Cimzia sales forecasts given continued strong US launches and delayed biosimilar entry. Our discussions with UCB suggest it is committed to its 2025 margin targets (implying a 550bp improvement) and we expect continued improvements thereafter (op. leverage; Bimzelx manuf. changes), leading to 4-15% increases to our EPS forecasts (24-28E sales/Core EPS CAGR = 11%/30%).
Strong launches better understood but upside from pipeline delivery remains
Despite the strong share performance, we continue to see upside given still conservative new launch assumptions and from potential of near-term pipeline readouts including: (1) P2/pivotal data for Rystiggo (MOG, AIE, FMS); (2) P2/3 data on higher risk/reward largely unmodelled pipeline (AD, PD, SLE); (3) P2 data on internal programmes, including two atopic dermatitis antibodies (one an IL-13/IL17AF bispecific). Positive data could lead to further upgrades to UCB''s growth outlook.
Increasing PT to EUR160 on raised forecasts; maintaining Outperform
Our raised PT of EUR160 (from EUR125) reflects increases to our Bimzelx, Rystiggo and Cimzia forecasts, raised margin assumptions and improved confidence in long-term growth. This implies 22.5x 2025E Core PE in return for a 2024-28E Core EPS CAGR of 30%. We expect ongoing launch...