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07 Oct 2022
Revising estimates and target price

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Revising estimates and target price
- Published:
07 Oct 2022 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
8 -
Revising our operational assumptions
With this report we make relatively modest changes to our operational estimates to reflect both revised organic growth and FX assumptions. The net result is a c.-2% reduction to our EBITDA in FY22e, FY23e and FY24e.
Revising our financial assumptions
We have also revised our ''financial'' assumptions to reflect a higher interest environment. While ABInBev''s bond portfolio is primarily (c.94%) fixed rate, we suspect that the higher interest rate environment will likely weigh on other financial costs such as transactional FX hedging. As a consequence of incorporating revised estimates in this area with the aforementioned operational revisions, we revise our earnings for FY22e, FY23e and FY24e by c.-5% to -7%.
We revise our target price from EUR63 to EUR61
We have previously argued that ABInBev should be valued on c.13.5x 1/2 FY23e + 1/2 FY24e EV/EBIT. While we maintain this valuation methodology, in light of our estimate revisions, we revise our target price from EUR63 to EUR61.