With the cancellation of Ampere''s IPO, 2024 may have gotten off to an inauspicious start for Renault. But Europe''s volume rebound, supportive new model momentum and an increasingly competitive BEV line-up look promising and prompt us to upgrade to Outperform. The European recovery play With 80% of EBIT generated in Europe, Renault is best placed to benefit from the rapid rebound in regional sales volumes we expect to materialise from here. Pricing pressure will intensify, no doubt, but the group''s supportive product cycle should soften the blow. And thanks to a large payables-receivables imbalance, a volume bounce should also deliver a working capital led cash inflow. Renault''s BEV story isn''t over yet The cancellation of the Ampere IPO should not detract from the merits of Renault''s BEV strategy. We continue to regard Renault''s focus on the delivery of affordable BEVs facilitated by determined cost compression as commendable. It is this focus on BEV cost cutting which should leave Renault competitively positioned vs new entrants, even in the context of an upcoming BEV fire sale. Safe haven in a protectionism storm France has already linked BEV subsidies to a European production base with Italy likely to follow. The EU''s Chinese BEV anti-subsidy probe is likely to end with greater support for European OEMs or higher import tariffs. A second Trump presidency could see a resurgence in US-EU/US-Sino trade friction. Renault''s geographical footprint leaves it well protected (or even benefitting) in any scenario. PT lifted to EUR49 (+38% upside), upgrading to Outperform More supportive European volumes, gentler pricing pressure and ongoing cost compression combined with a stronger operating performance at Nissan drives our EPS up +20%/62% for 2024/25e. Our new price target of EUR49 offers 38% upside, prompting us to upgrade to Outperform. Also see Automotive published today.