China has been Carlsberg''s primary growth driver in recent years China is Carlsberg''s largest market at an est. c.20% of sales / c.31% of FY22 EBIT. It has also been the group''s primary growth driver in recent years. We estimate China contributed +1.2%-pts to Carlsberg''s +2.3% LFL beer volume CAGR between FY18-22 and 50% of Group EBIT growth. Within China, the WuSu brand has been the big growth driver In the 5 years to 2022, we estimate Carlsberg''s China LFL beer volumes have grown at an impressive +7.2% CAGR. We believe the business has been propelled by the expansion of WuSu which grew at an est. +26% CAGR over the same period, becoming Carlsberg''s largest brand in the market (an est. c.30% of FY22 volumes). Excluding WuSu, we estimate Carlsberg''s China 5-year volume growth CAGR is a much more moderate +1.4%. Do local investors know something we don''t? Shares of Chongqing (Carlsberg''s listed China sub.) have been weak of late (-33% YTD in EUR) underperforming peers: Yanjing +8%, Zhujiang +4%, CRB -12%, Tsingtao -10%, BudAPAC -22%. WuSu is now facing more competition from similar products released by peers The success of WuSu has generally been attributed to its differentiated positioning: its Xinjiang provenance; its larger bottle size; its higher malt content (making it slightly sweeter and easier to drink); and its higher alcohol content. Local press reports suggest peers have recently launched brand-lines with similar attributes that now compete more directly with WuSu. The ''safe'' beer play feels a little less safe With ABInBev and Heineken both facing near-term issues, we believe Carlsberg is viewed as the ''safe'' play in beer. However, Carlsberg is relatively dependent on China for growth and here we believe it is increasingly being subject to competitive pressure. While we see risk of a slowdown in growth momentum, this is balanced by likely material COGS tailwinds next year (see Brewers: 2024 an embarrassment of riches) and we...