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23 Jan 2025
Running with the bulls on Spanish property

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Running with the bulls on Spanish property
Melia Hotels International (MEL:BME), 0 | Melia Hotels International, S.A. (MEL:MCE), 0 | Inmobiliaria Colonial (COL:BME), 0 | Inmobiliaria Colonial SOCIMI SA (COL:MCE), 0 | Merlin Properties SOCIMI (MRL:BME), 0 | MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. (MRL:MCE), 0
- Published:
23 Jan 2025 -
Author:
De Cueto Moreno Gonzalo GD -
Pages:
42 -
With the Spanish economy growing faster than peer countries and our Spanish Property companies under coverage well placed in terms of sub-segment exposure, we see a good year ahead for Melia Hotels, Merlin Properties, and Colonial. We look at earnings momentum, risks to consensus, near-term catalysts and valuation and remain Outperform on the stocks with Melia our preferred name.
Sub-segment preferences going into 2025: positive on Hotels and Logistics
We expect a positive year for the Logistics and Hotels sub-segments, with anticipated LfL growth exceeding inflation and yields compressing. We are more neutral on offices, with prime offices performing well, particularly in Madrid, but we expect secondary offices to deliver no rental growth and yield expansion to persist throughout 2025. In addition, we are less enthusiastic about retail as we expect lower consumer activity levels throughout the year.
Up/downside risk to consensus and near-term catalysts
We see upside risk to consensus at Melia thanks to yield management and at Merlin due to positive surprises on DC commercialization, while on the downside we flag Colonial''s limited pipeline rental contribution and weaker EBITDA-FFO flowthrough. In terms of catalysts, we see: 1) Melia''s asset rotation aimed at driving growth opportunities, 2) Merlin''s lease of Phase 1 capacity in Bilbao (24MW), and 3) Colonial''s potential sale of its Criteria Resi exposure above book value.
Valuation: Deep discounters (Colonial and Melia) vs Growth accumulators (Merlin Properties)
Melia currently trades at a c.50% disc. vs EU peers (vs hist. 25%), but we think its profile (high exposure to resorts) and sensitivity to interest rate moves should help the stock to outperform the sub-segment. Colonial and Merlin Properties are trading at wide discounts to their 25e NTA, with Colonial at 52% (vs 25% hist.) and Merlin at 33% (vs. 28% hist). Both companies offer attractive EBITDA yield to debt cost spreads, but Colonial''s is...