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11 Aug 2020
Russian pressures

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Russian pressures
- Published:
11 Aug 2020 -
Author:
Sofia Savvantidou -
Pages:
10 -
Uniper H1 ''20 on track for FY20
Uniper''s H1 results were broadly in line with expectations and consistent with the group''s start-of-year guidance, helped by a strong start to Commodities in Q1 and high hedge levels providing protection from the reduction in power prices. Uniper increased the midpoint of its FY20 EBIT and net income guidance by EUR25m. We slightly lower our operational estimates for 2020 but below-the-line items help our 2020 EPS up 4%, still at the upper half of the company guidance range.
2021 headwinds from Russia
Uniper''s achieved prices for 2021 hedging were slightly below expectations and down vs Q1. More importantly, Russia continues to struggle with weak power market conditions and yet another delay in the commissioning of Berezovskaya 3 to H1 ''21. The depreciation of the Rouble is another headwind (we use 85 in our model). Even though we are at the top end of the new, lowered, guidance for Russia in 2021, we cut our 2021 EPS by 8%.
Negative read-across for Fortum
Our updated Uniper estimates as well as the weaker Russian FX have a direct read-across for Fortum, which fully consolidates Uniper and generates more than 10% of its group EBIT in Russia. We lower our EPS estimates for 2020 and 2021.
Reiterate Underperform rating on Uniper and Fortum
Our Uniper price target is unchanged at EUR22. Although we recognise the market''s willingness to attach a premium valuation for the possibility of a future minorities buyout by Fortum, the timing, if not the realisation, of such a transaction is highly uncertain. We increase our Fortum price target to EUR15.7 to reflect higher valuation on assets under strategic review, which we expect to be sold. Although such disposals provide much needed help to the balance sheet, they increase the weight of Uniper, a structurally lower multiple business, within Fortum''s accounts. We therefore reiterate our Underperform rating. We believe investors overestimate the potential of the Nordic...