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01 Aug 2025
Sell-side analyst meeting feedback

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Sell-side analyst meeting feedback
- Published:
01 Aug 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
10 -
What happened?
This afternoon we attended a virtual sell-side analyst meeting hosted by ABInBev (CEO, CFO and IR team). We summarise the topics discussed below:
BNPP Exane View
. Busch Light: brand has been in growth for several quarters and several years. It is a big portion of the value segment, but it also sources a lot from light beers where ABI under-indexes. The growth is coming from the corn belt and expanding out from there.
. Brazil: the order of negative impacts in Q2 was 1) weather; 2) relative pricing and 3) consumer sentiment in this order. The weather was extreme (can be seen in the Coke bottler numbers) and led to huge swings from week to week which can not be driven by relative pricing or consumer sentiment. There is a mismatch between beer pricing and cumulative COGS / FX but cannot align in straight line. At the end of the quarter saw the market finally correcting prices to reflect cost / FX pressures.
. Hemp based intoxicating bevs: the sub-category is small, it is not legal at a federal level and see an increasing number of states pushing back against it in terms of THC levels. At this point, don''t believe this fits the ABI portfolio as it is not federally legal.
. Mexico: the difference between Brazil and Mexico in Q2 was Easter benefit is bigger for Mexico and the relative price gap was bigger in Brazil. The weather unfavourable in both markets. There was a c.9% price relatively for the consumer (ABI vs. competition) at the end of Q1 in Brazil.
. US beer distribution: at this point, don''t see any big benefit or synergies from having a much bigger spirits portfolio. But there is a very big opportunity for new to the world brands in the RTD spirits space. At last Q, Nutrl and Cutwater combined were +1.9% of the US spirits industry (in measured channels) and continued to be 30%+ of the USD growth in the spirits inc. RTD industry.
. Brazil brand strategy: there is no change to the portfolio strategy in Brazil which is...