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16 Jul 2021
Short-cycle momentum deteriorates

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Short-cycle momentum deteriorates
- Published:
16 Jul 2021 -
Author:
Mounsey Jonathan MJ -
Pages:
9 -
Orders ahead, but short-cycle momentum deteriorates in early Q3
Group orders came in 6% ahead; mix was skewed towards SMT and Mining. Machining Solutions orders in first two weeks of July are said to be up 20% YoY; management stated that Machining Solutions sales were up 20% YoY in the first two weeks of July (3% sequential). One might have thought that the easiest comps across Q3 would come in July and that therefore SMS would start the quarter growing faster than this; we suggest that this news is likely to trigger Consensus cuts to H2 SMS H2 forecasts.
Group profit -2% light; Mining margins impacted by negative net price/ mix
Excluding the negative impact from costs savings (and the reversal of temporary savings) the drop through on the volume growth to adjusted profit looks impressive, at c.64%. Even so, profit came in -2% light of the Street. Margin disappointment at SMRS (Mining) was partly responsible. Management spoke of unfavourable mix, ramp-up costs, logistics challenges and negative net pricing (pricing unable to offset inflationary pressures) as weighing on Mining margins.
Shares may struggle until market gains viability on when growth rates will stabilise
SMS''s early Q3 order intake is already decelerating and while we suspect that momentum will trough around year end, the news that SMS intake growth is slowing so quickly is unlikely to inspire confidence that this is how things will play out. In addition, the comments around net pricing pressure within SMRS are likely to be taken badly as they drive greater uncertainty around H2 margins. The shares may struggle to outperform until investors gain line of sight as to when, and at what level, growth rates stabilise.
Updating estimate; new TP SEK230
We have updated our estimates for recent trading and the latest guidance of interest, taxation and FX. Our price target falls to SEK230. We are Neutral rated.