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12 Aug 2024
Slower revenue ramp up but better profitability

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Slower revenue ramp up but better profitability
- Published:
12 Aug 2024 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
11 -
Strong FY24 EBITDA profitability
Strong Q4 orgrev growth of 13% led to 6% annual organic revenue growth with FY revenues broadly in line with expectations. The revenue decline in Video was in line with expectations (-7% orgrev growth) while Fixed Connectivity was 9% ahead of cons. fueled by the OneWeb contribution. Group adjusted EBITDA of EUR719m was 9% ahead of consensus forecasts on solid cost control. Net income was significantly below on higher depreciation and financial results.
Regulatory delays put pressure on OneWeb revenue ramp up
Management guided for weaker-than-expected FY25 revenues to be around the same level as in FY24. It blamed this on delays in OneWeb market access rights (in particular in India and Thailand) and the ground network roll out. Despite the slow ramp up, it is guiding only marginally lower EBITDA margins than in FY24 which we take as indicative of stronger than expected profitability.
Looking for partnerships to finance Gen 2
Management guided for EUR700-800m of FY25 capex in line with expectations. It has suspended its mid-term capex guidance and pointed that the amount to invest would depend on the type of partnerships the company can secure to fund OneWeb Gen 2. Preserving the balance sheet has taken priority in our view. The exit of Airbus and Thales from SpaceRise increases the chance of a positive IRIS2 outcome for Eutelsat in our view. Partnership with infrastructure investors could alleviate Eutelsat''s capex requirement.
Past false starts suggest it is too early to turn positive
We think competitive pressure, balance sheet risk, high investment requirements, structural pressure in Video, exposure to Russia outweigh the revenue growth opportunities from OneWeb for now. We have cut our FY25and26 revenues by c15% but increased our profitability assumptions. Our FY25 and 26 EBITDA is relatively unchanged. We remain cautious on the shares for now and maintain UPF.