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30 Jan 2023
Small beat despite recent bullish market expectation

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Small beat despite recent bullish market expectation
- Published:
30 Jan 2023 -
Author:
Ghayor Lina LG | Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
9 -
Small beat on organic growth- though recent share price rally indicates higher expectation
Q4 revenues came broadly in line with consensus. Organic growth was c5% versus Zone Finance consensus at +4.5% / Visible Alpha consensus at +3.5%. We note that the company has not provided forward looking commentary in the release and will give guidance for 2023 at the FY22 results on March 9th.
By division: billboard organic growth came at +6% versus cons. at +1%
The main driver of the small organic beat was Billboard with organic growth at 6% versus cons at +1%. The performance was driven by APAC, now above Q4 2019 levels in revenues - we note Australia billboard business is already double digit above 2019 levels.
By market: China still a drag
APAC excluding China grew by 44% organically (c-2% including China). In the Transport division, the release mentions 2022 was the worst year for mobility since the beginning of the pandemic in China.
EPS revisions - more cautious on 2023, steeper rebound in 2024
We tweaked our FY23 EPS down by 2% driven by i) 130bps cuts of organic growth in the Billboard division and ii) 60bps organic cuts for Street Furniture and Transport. However, this will set the company up for an easier FY23 comps and thus we have increased our FY24 EPS by 3%.
We remain Neutral on JCDecaux
We increase our TP by 4% to reflect small tweaks to our terminal growth rates assumption and margins in the Transport division notably. While we have a constructive view on advertising-driven companies ahead of 2023, we have yet to see a catalyst for the shares to re-rate at a time when the risks associated with the equity story are well understood (China re-opening timing, cyclicality). We remain Neutral on JCDecaux.