This content is only available within our institutional offering.

29 Feb 2024
Solid FY24 revenue outlook and deleveraging progress

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Solid FY24 revenue outlook and deleveraging progress
- Published:
29 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
11 -
Q4 revenue beat expectations
SES Q4 revenues came 7% ahead of expectations with both Video and Networks at the higher end of expectations. Solid mPower terminal sales in Government helped drive the beat and are a good leading indicator for future demand for mPower capacity. An unexpected change in regulation resulted in a new recurring EUR16m annual charge all booked in Q4 23. This explains the lower-than-expected EBITDA and EBITDA margin for Q4 23. Capex was lower than expected. DPS is in line. SES is moving to a semi-annual dividend payment with an additional EUR0.25 in October.
FY24 outlook 3-4% ahead of expectations
Management guided for growth in SES Networks and a mid-single-digit decline in Video, resulting in a guided revenue range 3% ahead of consensus at the midpoint. Management suggested it is aiming for the upper end of its EUR1,940m-2,000m range. Despite higher start-up costs, EBITDA 24 guidance came in line with expectations. We raise our FY24 revenues by 4% and EPS 24 by 2%.
Good progress on deleveraging
With a further USD410m of FCC payment and a potential USD472m insurance claim pending, SES''s balance sheet leverage is trending towards 1x. Management has announced the repayment of EUR1bn of gross debt. Solid progress on the deleveraging is a positive, in our view.
More clarity on capital allocation at the interim results
The negative share price reaction likely reflects the lack of announcement on capital allocation. With IRIS2 potentially requiring a sizeable investment (newsflow expected in March/April), we find it understandable that the CEO of 4 weeks needs more time to formulate the capital allocation strategy. For the benefit of long-term shareholders, we continue to argue that protecting the balance sheet of a company in a disrupted industry should take precedent over cash returns. We expect SES to return to sustainable top-line growth from FY25 as mPower takes off. We remain Outperform.