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                    03 Aug 2023 
Solid H1 and surprise buyback
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Solid H1 and surprise buyback
- Published: 
03 Aug 2023  - 
                                            
                                            
                                            Author:
                                                
Kassab Sami SK  - 
                                            
                                            Pages:
                                                
9  - 
                                            
                                         
H1 beat expectations as SES returns to revenue growth after 5 years of decline
After 5 years of revenue decline SES has returned to positive organic revenue growth with a consensus-beating +0.6% in Q2 23. This performance was driven by lower-than-expected revenue decline at SES Video as contracts indexed on inflation helped pricing while SES Networks accelerated on strength (+30%) in Maritime. EBITDA came 4% ahead of expectations.
mPower delayed to end of year and tech issues revealed
Management has announced another delay in the entry into service of mPower, now expected by end of 2023 (vs. late Q3 23 previously). We believe the many delays have to be seen in the context of the tech issues revealed by the company. Management argued that mPower had encountered sporadic technical issues on a fraction of the electronic components of payloads already in orbit. Management claimed it can recover functionalities as these glitches happen and that it has adapted its procedures. Management does not expect a short- or long-term impact. We note that SES 17 and mPower combined backlog expanded by 4% in the quarter despite consumption on SES17.
Full-year guidance reaffirmed. Share buyback announced as C band proceeds arrive in Q4
Management has confirmed all elements of its FY23 guidance. It also announced it had completed the C band clearing ahead of schedule and would receive the USD3bn pretax bonus payment in Q4. Management announced a surprise EUR150m share buyback. 
Outperform reaffirmed
We have adjusted our 2023 forecasts to reflect the new start of mPower, lower video decline, the share buyback and forex. Our 2023 and 2024 adj. EBITDA remain 2% and 9% ahead of VA consensus pre release. We continue to believe in the commercial success of mPower and hence in the sustained return to growth of the company, which is far from discounted in the share price. A contract award from the EU Commission on IRIS2, increased cash returns to shareholders post C band...