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11 Nov 2024
Solid operating cash flow

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Solid operating cash flow
- Published:
11 Nov 2024 -
Author:
De Cueto Moreno Gonzalo GD -
Pages:
10 -
Top-line growth driven by strong average daily rates (ADRs) in Spain and EMEA
Top-line was up 2.6% YoY, with sales at EUR584m, slightly below Consensus expectations (-2.3% below V.A Consensus) driven by a higher level of eliminations on consolidation. Owned and Leased REVPAR amounted to EUR135m in 3Q 23 (+10.7% YoY) mainly driven by higher average rates per room (+10.3% YoY) while occupancy remained almost flat YoY (+0.2pp YoY).
Strong EBITDA margin and operating cash flow achieved in Q3
EBITDA amounted to EUR188m (+12.1%YoY and inline with consensus). Margins reached 32.2% in Q3 (+ c. 270bps YoY). Net Debt stood at EUR2,319m (slightly above the EUR2,313m expected by consensus), and it implies a decline of EUR63m vs Q2 24 mainly thanks to the operational cash flow generated during the quarter.
Guidance reiterated, limited upside to consensus estimates though
Although Melia has reiterated its FY24 EBITDA target of EUR525m, we see limited headroom for consensus to review upwards its current estimates (EUR528m). Although hotels in Europe and Spain continue to benefit from rate increases, Q4 results will be weighed down by the underperformance in American hotels, where bookings have been affected by the US elections, and declining occupancy levels in Mexican hotels, which continue to struggle due to reduced airport capacity.
TP raised to EUR8.2/sh - Neutral stance reiterated
We slightly decrease our FY24-26 EBITDA estimates by 2% on average while we increase our Net Profit 24e estimate by c.4% on associates'' income. We raise our TP to EUR8.2/sh (from EUR7.8/sh) on higher average peer multiples applied to our FY24 EBITDA estimates. That said, in our view shares already reflect the deleveraging of the company in recent quarters and the good dynamics of hotels in Europe.