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26 Jul 2023
Solid set of numbers

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Solid set of numbers
- Published:
26 Jul 2023 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
7 -
Travel Retail drives Lagardere profit turnaround in H1 23
While revenues came in line, Lagardere produced a solid EBIT performance in H1 23 at EUR141m some 15% ahead of our forecasts. No consensus data is available. Lagardere Publishing reported 1.6% organic revenue growth (vs. our forecast of 1.0%) but suffered a 150bps fall in margins (vs. our forecast of 30bps) on higher labour and paper cost inflation. This was more than offset by a strong performance in Travel Retail profitability. TR reported 32% orgrev growth (BNPPE at 38%) and 4.0% EBIT margins, some 250bps ahead of H1 22 (BNPPE at +30bps). This reflected solid top line growth and efficiency gains.
Solid Q3 trends - outlook reaffirmed
Lagardere has reaffirmed its FY23 outlook. Both divisions pointed to solid trends in Q3. Publishing is likely to benefit from market share gains in Spanish Education and from the benefits of a curriculum reform as well as from new Asterix and Britney Spears memoirs. In Travel Retail, we expect further solid trends in the US and Europe and a gradual recovery in Chinese domestic traffic. Management suggested that the ongoing strike at JDD would not have a meaningful impact at the group level. Lagardere announced a new JV with ADP to operate retail outlets in Paris airports. Management pointed to a better product mix and new stores but also mentioned that it will pay higher rents to ADP.
No comments on Simon and Schuster. Vivendi deal expected to close by November
Management refrained from making any comment on a potential acquisition of Simon and Schuster (as discussed in news articles e.g. Le Figaro). Management also pointed out that it expects Vivendi to take control in October or November. We have kept our forecasts unchanged and reaffirm our Neutral rating.