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21 Apr 2023
Solid start to the year and solid message

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Solid start to the year and solid message
- Published:
21 Apr 2023 -
Author:
Ghayor Lina LG -
Pages:
8 -
Better-than-expected organic growth
Publicis Groupe reported +7.1% organic net revenue growth versus a conservative consensus at +4.5%. This implies a 18% 2y stack (stabilization versus Q4 22) and a 22% 3y stack. The beat was driven by a strong performance in Europe, at +c13%. We note Epsilon came in at +10% (Q1 2022 comp +7%) and Sapient came in at +11% (on a tough 18% comparative in Q1 2022).
Solid message on the outlook
The company confirmed FY23 guidance while providing a small ''upgrade'', with the company now expecting organic growth to reach the ''top half of the 3% to 5% range''. Margin guidance was reaffirmed between 17.5% to 18% and FCF guidance confirmed too. Publicis also provided guidance for Q2 2023 of between +3% and +5%, which implies a growth deceleration in H2. On this topic, during the call, Management highlighted that: i) H2 has tough comparatives; ii) the macro remains challenging; and iii) the back end of Q4 is always difficult to predict. That said, we see the small organic guidance upgrade as a positive.
Non-material forecast changes
We have updated our model for Q1 and tweaked our quarterly estimates: we now expect Q2 2023 at +4.2% organic and H2 2023 at +4.2%. We increase by 10bps our FY23 organic net growth estimates from 4.7% to 4.8%, driven by Latin America and Middle-East and Africa. We keep our 18% margins estimate unchanged for FY23. Bottom-line, our EPS does not materially change for FY23e/24e and we also keep our target price at EUR95 per share, suggesting c24% upside.
We rate Publicis Groupe Outperform
In a sub-sector that is set, in our view, to benefit from a re-rating, we continue to see Publicis Groupe as a strong long-term play. At 11x PE 24e and 10% FCF Yield, we believe the risk reward is very appealing and rate Publicis Groupe Outperform.