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04 May 2023
Solid start to the year

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Solid start to the year
- Published:
04 May 2023 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
10 -
SES delivers solid Q1 results and reaffirms FY guidance
SES revenues and EBITDA came in 1% and 4% ahead of consensus respectively. SES Networks'' organic revenue growth of 3% was ahead, driven by 14% growth in Mobility. SES Video was in line with expectations at -5%. EBITDA margins beat consensus expectations by 170bps. All elements of the guidance have been reaffirmed.
Confirmed to be in talks with Intelsat
SES confirmed on March 29th that it has engaged in talks with Intelsat with regards to a possible combination. Management did not disclose any further details. While we believe that at the right price such a deal would make strong financial sense, we still think the strategic angle is more debatable. We note that we estimate the NPV of the tax benefits that SES would generate to be at 20% of its current market cap.
mPower, C-band, IRIS2 projects are all progressing well
SES has completed more than 90% of its C-band repacking and is well on track to receive USD3bn in C-band payments by year end. Next month, Space X is due to launch the two last satellites needed for mPower to launch its global service in late Q3. With SES joining the consortium, which comprises all of the key players in the European space industry (Eutelsat, Hispasat, Airbus, Thales), the likelihood of the company benefiting from the IRIS2 project increases significantly.
Forex-driven EPS revisions. Outperform maintained
We have marginally raised our underlying revenue growth forecasts for FY23, driven by the solid performance of SES Networks. Recent forex movements drive most of our EPS revision. We continue to expect SES to return to revenue growth next year as it benefits from the entry into service of mPower. C-band proceeds will improve the balance sheet structure (from Net debt/EBITDA of 3.6x currently to 1x) and make valuation appealing. IRIS2 adds further positive optionality contributing to the return to growth. However, we believe that investors will need more...