The IEA''s outlook paints a fragile picture for oil markets, with volatility all but guaranteed The IEA''s latest medium-term outlook presents a conundrum for the sector, calling peak oil demand in 2029 and a major build in global inventories. Against the prospect of OPEC+ returning 2.2mb/d of spare in increments starting in December through 2025, we see risks to the oil sector firmly skewed to the downside. We compare key agency outlooks and supply/demand sensitivities in this report. US shale production in OPEC+ crosshairs, but greenfield offshore far more resilient While short-cycle, US shale oil production is clearly most exposed at the upper end of the industry cost curve, a typical 8-12 month impulse from price to production response means there''s no quick fix to solving a potentially oversupplied market. But will a $60-70/bbl world ''kill'' greenfield offshore capex? We analyse the industry cost curve, shale sensitivity and shifting spending patterns overleaf. What can you own with this outlook? We argue that our mostly offshore-focused, longer-cycle EU OFS coverage stacks up well relative to US onshore OFS and Big Oil. Record offshore backlogs offer superior earnings/cash visibility into the mid-to-late 2020s thanks to continued OFS and customer discipline which has led to a more sustainable upcycle in our view. SPM top offshore pick, O/P reiterated on SBMO, VK, TE and GTT. SUBC lowered to Neutral SPM becomes our top pick amongst the installers on relative H/H order and earnings momentum vs peers. The 50% discount to mid-cycle EV/EBITDA vs 20% for SUBC supports our preference for SPM given more resilient Middle East NOC and gas-focused contract awards over the next few quarters. We lower SUBC to Neutral after a strong 2Q and upgraded mid-term margin outlook. We think SBMO''s new Sale and Operate model (now in our forecasts) will ease perceived complexity and accelerate cash return to shareholders. TE and GTT offer relative protection through gas...