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  • 24 Mar 2021

Spanish Telcos: How Lowi can you go?


Telefonica SA (TEF:MCE), 0 | Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD:LON), 94.1 | Orange SA (ORA:PAR), 0 | Orange SA (0OQV:LON), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Mills Joshua JM | McHugh Sam SM

    • 30 pages


 

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Spanish Telcos: How Lowi can you go?


Telefonica SA (TEF:MCE), 0 | Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD:LON), 94.1 | Orange SA (ORA:PAR), 0 | Orange SA (0OQV:LON), 0

  • Published: 24 Mar 2021
  • Author: Mills Joshua JM | McHugh Sam SM
  • Pages: 30
  • BNP Paribas Exane


In contrast to most markets, STAMP 2021 showed that the Spanish telco market has become even more price conscious this year with subscribers continuing to shift to lower-end brands. Overall customer satisfaction levels remain high, but sub brands have seen the biggest improvement with 27% of churners looking to move to the likes of O2, Lowi and MasMovil. That is good news for Euskaltel''s ''Virgin'' challenger brand, and based on the new survey data we have materially increased our forecasts and double-upgraded to Outperform in The 1, 3 and 5-year view: Re-opening. But it also means that competition will remain fierce for the rest of the market - this trends is not driven by just one operator and we believe that Telefonica (-) remains most vulnerable. Mas brands, menos dinero Our STAMP 2021 survey shows that Spaniards are clearly shifting towards mid and low-end brands as price sensitivity increases - hardly surprising given that sub-brands now offer excellent quality service at a c. 30% discount to legacy packages. We also track average market pricing, portability data and Google trends, and combining this analysis suggest that Spanish ARPUs could fall by another 10% across the major operators as subs shift to sub-brands. A strong start for the new Virgin brand We were initially sceptical that Euskaltel''s ''Virgin'' brand could carve a niche in a crowded market. But less than one year post-launch, 7% of broadband churners are looking to switch to Virgin, NPS data is strong and the brand is well positioned for a more price-conscious customer base. We remain cautious on Euskaltel''s legacy cable business, but Virgin growth means that EBITDA can increase 50% by 2025 and Spanish market consolidation could be another positive catalyst. Is market consolidation really good for Telefonica? TEF is +36% over the past 6 months, and many see a Vodafone-MasMovil deal as the key to market repair and higher prices longer term. But price erosion is more a...

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